PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends for March 2021

No. PR- 005 April 10, 2021 New Delhi PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends for March 2021 Economic activity consolidated in a steady zone in March 2021: PHD Chamber Increased passenger vehicle sales, high e-way bills, accelerating exports and record GST Collections in March 2021 indicate steady economic movement, says the industry body PHD Chamber Economic activity consolidated in a steady zone in March 2021, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today. Out of the 10 indicators of QET (Quick Economic Trends) of economic and business activity tracked by the industry body PHDCCI, 6 have performed positive in March 2021 of which passenger vehicle sales has shown a highest growth of 125% over the corresponding month in previous year, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal. It is highly appreciable that India has become the fastest Covid-19 vaccinating country in the world with an average daily rate of 30,93,861 vaccine doses. Therefore, amid the re-emerging COVID-19 cases in the country, the movement of Indian economy remains steady in March 2021, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal. A steady improvement in lead economic and business indicators would go a long way to strengthen the economic growth in the coming quarters with the enhanced level of confidence of businesses, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal. PHD Chamber projects more than 1% growth rate of GDP in Q4 FY 2020-21. The economy has potential to accelerate to more than 11% growth trajectory in the next financial year 2021-22, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal. Chart 1: Economy out of 10 based on PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends Chart 2: Economic and Business indicators’ growth rates: March 2021 (in %) Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Note: Growth calculations of indicators such as exchange rate and unemployment are adjusted such that the decrease in the said indicators depicts improvement and vice-versa; figures are rounded off; year on year (y-o-y) growth is calculated for the indicators including GST Collection, E way bill, Railway Freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales and Exports; sequential (month over month) growth is calculated for the indicators including Unemployment Rate, Forex Reserves, Exchange Rate, Stock Market and Manufacturing PMI. 10 economic and business indicators of QET include demand and supply indicators along with external and financial sectors indicators, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal. Economic and business indicators such as GST Collections, E-way Bills, Railway freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales, and Exports have shown a positive y-o-y growth in March 2021 as compared with March 2020, while unemployment registered an improvement in March 2021 over the previous month February 2021, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal. PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends: Growth Performance of Economic & Business activity so far S. No. Economic and Business Indicators Jan-21 Growth Feb-21 Growth Mar-21 Growth Indicators with Y-o-Y Growth 1 GST Collection (in Rs crore) 119847 8.1% ↑ 113143 2.1% ↑ 123902 27.0% ↑ 2 E way bill (in Millions) 62.9 12.1% ↑ 63.8 11.6% ↑ 71.2 75.4% ↑ 3 Railway Freight (MT) 119.8 8.5% ↑ 112.3 9.8% ↑ 122.2 23.7% ↑ 4 Passenger Vehicle Sales (units) 276554 11.1% ↑ 281380 17.9% ↑ 321765 125.0% ↑ 5 Exports (US$ Billion) 27.45 5.7% ↑ 27.67 0.1% ↑ 34 58.1% ↑ Indicators with Sequential growth (M-o-M) 6 Unemployment Rate (in %) (Sign Changed)* 6.53 27.9% ↑ 6.9 -4.1% ↓ 6.5 5.8% ↑ 7 Forex Reserves (in US$ Billion) 590.2 1.6% ↑ 584.6 -1.0% ↓ 579.3 -0.9% ↓ 8 Exchange Rate (INR/USD) (Sign changed)* 72.88 0.2% ↑ 72.78 0.1% ↑ 72.8 -0.03% ↓ 9 Stock Market (SENSEX monthly average) 48580 5.1% ↑ 50783 4.8% ↑ 50100 -1.3% ↓ 10 Manufacturing PMI (points) 57.7 2.3% ↑ 57.5 -0.4% ↓ 55.4 -3.7% ↓ Overall Score 10/10 7/10 6/10 Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI, compiled from various sources Note : *Growth calculations of indicators such as exchange rate and unemployment are adjusted such that the decrease in the said indicators depicts improvement and vice-versa; figures are rounded off; YoY means Year on Year growth and MoM means month over month (sequential) growth. At this juncture, to continue the pace of economic momentum, rapid administration of COVID-19 vaccination, especially in the States where COVID-19 cases are re-emerging, becomes crucial, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal. Further, immediate policy attention is required towards credit access to industry. Credit disbursement should be the top priority at this juncture by the banking sector. The focus should be on ensuring provision of hassle free disbursements of loans vis-à-vis enhanced liquidity for MSMEs, especially in rural sectors, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal. Also, there is a need to lower interest rates for consumers and businesses, lesser compliances for MSMEs vis-à-vis ease of doing business at the ground level, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal. Ends Media Division PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry