No. PR – 224
February 22, 2022
New Delhi
The PHDCCI Economic and Business Momentum (EBM) Index
PHD Chamber projects more than 9.3% GDP growth in 2022-23
The PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry projects FY 2022 GDP growth at 9.3-9.7% on the back of supportive Government policies, decelerating impact of Coronavirus and continued improvement in key economic and business indicators, said Mr Pradeep Multani, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today.
The Industry Body said that the Q3 FY 2022 GDP growth is expected to be more than 6.1%, somewhere in the range of 6.1-6.5%.
According to the PHDCCI Economic & Business Momentum (EBM) Index, the 25 lead economic and business indicators have shown a significant recovery at 102.8 for Q3 FY 2021-22 as compared to 98.2 for Q3 FY 2020-21, at the base of 2018-19 = 100.
Economic recovery so far (Y-o-Y)
PHDCCI EBM Index 2018-19=100 Q3 FY 2017-18 Q3 FY 2018-19 Q3 FY 2019-20 Q3 FY 2020-21 Q3 FY 2021-22
98.2 100.1 98.6 98.2 102.8
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index
Lead economic and business indicators such as SENSEX, merchandise exports and services exports have shown a noteworthy improvement in Q3 FY 2021-22 as compared to the Q3 FY 2020-21, said Mr Pradeep Mulatni.
Sequentially, the PHDCCI EBM Index has shown an uptrend for Q3 FY 2021-22 to the level of 102.8 as compared to 101.5 for Q2 FY 2021-22, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
Economic recovery so far (Sequential)
PHDCCI EBM Index 2018-19=100 Q1 FY 2020-21 Q2 FY 2020-21 Q3 FY 2020-21 Q4 FY 2020-21 Q1 FY 2021-22 Q2 FY 2021-22 Q3 FY 2021-22
85.2 96.0 98.2 99.7 97.9 101.5 102.8
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index.
The quarterly movement of PHDCCI EBM Index and quarterly GDP growth rates are highly correlated at 0.8 as depicted in Chart-2, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
Chart-1 : PHDCCI EBM Index: Monthly Trend (Base: 2018-19=100) Chart-2 : PHDCCI EBM Index (Base: 2018-19=100) and GDP Growth Rates (in %): Quarterly Trend
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index; GDP growth figures compiled from MOSPI. Note: Q3 FY 2022 is estimated by PHD Chamber
PHDCCI EBM (Economic and Business Momentum) Index has shown steady recovery from the lows of 78.3 for April 2020 to 100.3 for April 2021, 95.3 for May 2021 as compared with 85.7 for May 2020, 98 for June 2021 as compared to 91.6 in June 2020, 102.1 for July 2021 as compared to 95.5 in July 2020, 101.7 for August 2021 as compared to 95.9 in August 2020, 101.1 for September 2021 as compared to 96.5 in September 2020, 102.3 for October 2021 as compared to 96.8 in October 2020, 102.0 for November 2021 as compared to 98.4 for November 2020 and 104.1 for December 2021 as compared to 99.3 for December 2020 with a base of 2018-19=100.
Going ahead, the pace of economic activity is expected to remain strong on the back of various structural reforms undertaken by the Government during the last 2 years, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
The recent budget announced by the Government for the FY 2022-23 looks into the future while keeping a close eye on the ground. The Budget is a step forward towards the vision of creating an Atmanirbhar Bharat and reflects a consistency in government’s approach in making India a Modern, Developed and Inclusive nation, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
PHDCCI EBM Index is a composite index of 25 lead economic and business indicators with base year at 2018-19=100, which considers the demand and supply indicators to present a broad perspective of the economy. The 25 indicators include the IIP Consumer durable goods, IIP Consumer non-durable goods, IIP Capital Goods, IIP Intermediate Goods, Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Petroleum Refinery Products, Fertilisers, Steel, Cement, Electricity, Consumption of Petroleum products, Export Merchandise, Export Services, India Freight Traffic, Credit to Agriculture, Credit to Industry, Credit to service sector, Personal Loans, GST Collections, SENSEX, FDI Equity Inflows, External commercial borrowings and Unemployment.
Full PHDCCI EBM Index report attached
PHDCCI EBM Index
Base: 2018-19=100
Sr No Economic Indicators Q3 FY 2020-21 Q3 FY 2021-22 Q3 FY 2021-22 – Q3 FY 2020-21
1 IIP Consumer durable goods 96.9 96.9 -3.9
2 IIP Consumer non-durable goods 122.9 122.9 0.3
3 IIP Capital Goods 90.7 90.7 -2.5
4 IIP Intermediate Goods 119.7 119.7 2.5
5 Coal 116.8 116.8 10.0
6 Crude Oil 83.0 83.0 -1.8
7 Natural Gas 108.2 108.2 20.2
8 Petroleum Refinery Products 108.2 108.2 7.9
9 Fertilizers 109.5 109.5 2.2
10 Steel 121.8 121.8 1.7
11 Cement 130.6 130.6 9.6
12 Electricity 113.9 113.9 2.7
13 Consumption of Petroleum products 109.2 109.2 -2.4
14 Export Merchandise Growth 153.8 153.8 40.8
15 Export Services 163.6 163.6 36.0
16 India Freight Traffic 112.6 112.6 6.9
17 Credit to Agriculture 111.7 111.7 3.3
18 Credit to Industry 105.2 105.2 6.4
19 Credit to service sector 105.8 105.8 -3.3
20 Personal Loans 112.5 112.5 2.9
21 GST Collection 130.5 130.5 22.0
22 SENSEX (Daily average) 214.6 214.6 58.2
23 FDI Equity Inflows 128.2 128.2 -63.9
24 External commercial borrowings 154.4 154.4 26.2
25 Unemployment 96.6 96.6 0.0
Composite Weighted Index 98.2 102.8 4.6
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index Note: For calculation purpose, the FDI figure for October, November, December 2021 are moving average of last 3 months; figures are rounded off.
Warm Regards,
Media Division
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry