PR No – 47
15th January, 2025
New Delhi
India leads the epitome of resilience among the leading economies despite challenging global environment: PHDCCI
India’s growth story continues with GDP surpassing USD 4 trillion in 2025 and becoming the fourth largest economy by 2026, supported by robust economic fundamentals and dynamic business environment, says industry body PHDCCI
An analysis conducted by the PHD Research Bureau, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry in a report on “New Year Economics PHDCCI Economic Outlook 2025” projects that India will be the most resilient economy among the top 10 leading economies in the next three years (2025-2027).
The analysis is based on leading macroeconomic indicators, including growth of GDP, Exports, Savings, Investments and Debt to GDP Ratio.
The five major economic indicators highlight the overall strength of the economy, including GDP performance, the robustness of the external sector as indicated by export trends, structural indicators of saving and investment, and the fiscal consolidation efforts represented by the debt-to-GDP ratio.
With the Indian economy growing resiliently over the past three years, the economy is expected to become the fourth largest economy in the World by 2026, surpassing Japan, said Shri Hemant Jain, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today.
India’s economy remains resilient despite a subdued global economic outlook and persistent geopolitical challenges. Geopolitical conflicts generate spillover effects, extending beyond borders, affecting international trade, global value chains, and financial markets, thus reshaping the World’s demand and supply dynamics, said the Industry body PHDCCI.
Amid this challenging external landscape, India’s geopolitical significance is growing significantly, earning appreciation from international institutions, said Shri Hemant Jain.
India is making significant strides in its futuristic growth trajectory, the GDP in the current financial year (2024-25) is expected to expand at 6.8% and 7.7% in FY2025-26, said Shri Jain.
The analysis has been conducted for two sets of time periods: Past Performance (2022-2024) and Futuristic outlook (2025-2027). Ranking of the five lead macroeconomic indicators has been observed across these two periods, said the Industry body PHDCCI.
India ranks first in GDP growth in the past performance (2022-2024) and in the futuristic outlook (2025-2027), among the top 10 economies, said the Industry body PHDCCI.
India emerges as the leader in export growth among the top 10 economies, for the futuristic outlook (2025-2027), improving from its second rank in past performance (2022-2024), supporting India’s ambitious target of USD 2 trillion exports by 2030, said the Industry body PHDCCI.
India is anticipated to maintain a continuous momentum in investments and savings, at around 33% and 32% of GDP respectively, highlighting the government’s commitment to fostering a favourable investment environment and a greater investor-friendly ecosystem for businesses, said the industry body PHDCCI.
India ranks second among the top 10 economies in the past performance (2022-2024) and in the futuristic outlook (2025-2027) for savings and investments, said the industry body PHDCCI.
India established a milestone in its FDI journey in 2024 as cumulative (2000-2024) FDI inflows touched USD 1 trillion and exceeded USD 40 billion in the first half of the current financial year (2024-2025), said the industry body PHDCCI
Nearly 70% of this cumulative FDI has been accumulated in the recent decade, facilitated by government proactive policy initiatives and liberalised FDI guidelines, said the industry body PHDCCI.
Government commitment to maintaining financial discipline is highlighted from steady second rank in India’s Debt to GDP ratio in past performance (2022-2024) and futuristic outlook (2025-2027), said the industry body PHDCCI.
Remarkably, India leads cumulatively across all lead indicators among the World’s top 10 major economies, highlighting prudent, transformative and well-structured policies propelling India’s accent to a prominent position, said the study.
India’s growth is attributed to deeper integration into global supply chains, a dynamic innovation ecosystem and improved export competitiveness, while the government’s efforts to rationalize expenditures and revenues aid in fiscal consolidation. This stands in contrast to many economies grappling with low growth and high debt levels. Moreover, India has become an attractive and investment-friendly destination supported by the prudent efforts of the government to enhance ease of doing business, says Dr. Ranjeet Mehta, CEO & Secretary General, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
India’s GDP growth has shown remarkable resilience, with an average growth rate of around 8% from 2021-2024. Despite geopolitical conflicts and fragmentation issues, the Indian economy is on a strong, stable, and resilient footing. Supported by consistent savings, robust investments, substantial forex reserves, and fiscal consolidation efforts by the government, India is projected to grow strong, outpacing other leading economies in the next many years, said Dr. SP Sharma, Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary General, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The inflation trajectory is expected to be around 4.5% (average) for the current financial year and 4% (average) for the next financial year (2025-26), said the Industry body PHDCCI.
The Industry body has identified five growth-promising sectors, including agriculture and food processing, fintech, semiconductors, health and insurance, and renewable energy, to lead India’s growth trajectory to higher growth in the coming years.
The Industry body also suggests a five-pronged strategy including increased capital expenditure, enhanced ease of doing business, reduction in the cost of doing business, focus on labor-intensive manufacturing and greater integration in Global Value Chains to further strengthen the growth trajectory towards Viksit Bharat@2047.
Ranks in Past performance of Top 10 economies for all indicators
(2022-2024)
| S.No. | Country | Overall rank | GDP | Exports | Savings | Investments | Debt to GDP |
| 1 | India | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2 | China | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Canada | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | France | 4 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Japan | 5 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Brazil | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 |
| 7 | Germany | 7 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 8 | United States | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 9 | Italy | 9 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| 10 | United Kingdom | 10 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 5 |
Ranks of Futuristic Outlook of Top 10 economies for all indicators
(2025-2027)
| S.No. | Country | Overall rank | GDP | Exports | Savings | Investments | Debt to GDP |
| 1 | India | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2 | China | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Canada | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| 4 | Germany | 4 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 5 | Brazil | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 3 |
| 6 | Japan | 6 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | France | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | United States | 8 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 9 | Italy | 9 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | United Kingdom | 10 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
*END*
Warm Regards,
Media Division, PHDCCI